Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f68a40d7f8a492ba5b606ea73626824f666326ba4868b5143374ae0b461e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 16c | 308.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.83 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 79c | 300.52$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 32c | 286.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 66c | 281.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 278.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 241.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 239.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 200.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 39c | 181.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 154.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 49c | 141.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…0203backed Yes | 76c | 131.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 111.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed No | 19c | 106.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 28c | 104.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 98.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 51c | 98.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 97.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 68c | 93.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 66c | 88.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 44c | 85.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 83.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 71.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 33c | 71.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 67.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 60.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 76c | 52.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 61c | 49.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 66c | 49.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked No | 27c | 46.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 43c | 46.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 78c | 46.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 45c | 46.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 45.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4365…4b5dbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 43.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 31c | 43.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 41.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 36c | 40.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 32c | 40.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 34c | 39.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 38.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 78c | 38.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 37.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 43c | 34.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 54c | 34.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 34.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 33.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 56c | 32.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 64c | 22.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 76c | 21.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…1310backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 64c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.