Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Rebecca Sramkova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff3b5977ee6748ce8c0e657169e0fe9939659371cf4971d2601671c36d9849b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Sramkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 5,500$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sramkova | 26c | 5,410$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.12 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Sramkova | 13c | 2,254$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Sramkova | 26c | 2,058$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.93 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sabalenka | 78c | 1,314$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sramkova | 27c | 1,304$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.73 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…c5a6backed Sramkova | 4c | 1,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sramkova | 7c | 1,200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sramkova | 9c | 1,017$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Sabalenka | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Sramkova | 25c | 897$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Sabalenka | 79c | 850$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Sramkova | 13c | 650$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Sramkova | 4c | 607.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Sabalenka | 68c | 585.83$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.04 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sramkova | 19c | 536.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sramkova | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…09c9backed Sramkova | 8c | 445.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Sabalenka | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Sabalenka | 65c | 269$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sramkova | 16c | 259.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Sramkova | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sramkova | 16c | 197.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 175$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Sabalenka | 64c | 157.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Sramkova | 36c | 157.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Sabalenka | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Sabalenka | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.