Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff475bf23f2b2720655fe7b4722e88a3f8ee779726d1ca95ae4010faeacaa7a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 24c | 293.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 178.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 169.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 143.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 140.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 70c | 138.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 103.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 38c | 74.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…5e39backed Yes | 27c | 68.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 62.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 65c | 38.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 36.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 31c | 33.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 73c | 28.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 79c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.