Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff57d9f4431c36ca6792c281a04f5c144fb2b28f0d9a2a833dab85b41ed572f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 2c | 5,160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed Yes | 12c | 1,420$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…e5c7backed Yes | 70c | 675.02$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed No | 64c | 564.32$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 42c | 389.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 284.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 57c | 263$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 53c | 214.97$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 36c | 165.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 59c | 151$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…b6e8backed Yes | 38c | 103$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…b4bbbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 34c | 89.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 25c | 76.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 70c | 74.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b2…019ebacked Yes | 71c | 72.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed No | 40c | 72.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed Yes | 65c | 70.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…a72ebacked No | 35c | 70.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 46c | 68.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…f262backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 47.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…159cbacked Yes | 65c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…5ebbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 40c | 40.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked Yes | 51c | 40.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…ea28backed Yes | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 65c | 32.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 52c | 31.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…b2bbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…2f53backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…6fb2backed Yes | 63c | 25.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…8d4cbacked Yes | 62c | 21.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…b662backed Yes | 57c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…8e48backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.