South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6bd7ca15d526f1f67b9cd7d14a002e98cf4e15c398b940efde198a4fac4f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,885 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 2,897$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,311$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.31 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Yes | 11c | 653.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 20c | 501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 499.98$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 413.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 299.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 258.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Yes | 29c | 148.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 146.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 20c | 127$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 29c | 122.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 22c | 117.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 101.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 93.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 88.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 61.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 52.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-18?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.