South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ab9837eb8a5ecfa1c2c43488644be975a8c6849731257467510c9eb4c43514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 6c | 5,043$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.68 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 5,024$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes | 28c | 4,252$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…7d01backed Yes | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 3,567$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.63 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 1,560$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,010$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…e4a1backed No | 73c | 906$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 781.92$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 27c | 716$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 73c | 651$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 28c | 624.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 573.28$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed No | 73c | 479.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Yes | 3c | 426.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…12cdbacked Yes | 26c | 382.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 27c | 368.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 13c | 364.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed No | 73c | 363$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 73c | 342.37$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 7c | 332$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Yes | 7c | 330.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 29c | 257.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 249.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 7c | 213.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked No | 73c | 181$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked No | 73c | 181$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 8c | 171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed No | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 108.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed No | 77c | 105.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 16c | 97.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 28c | 92.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 77.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…f89fbacked Yes | 29c | 70.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 65.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…7be6backed Yes | 28c | 56.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 28c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 51.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…e57cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 39.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…69d6backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Yes | 29c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8146…fe66backed Yes | 31c | 32.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…4c44backed No | 73c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed No | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-18?this page
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.