Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7deefd88f303043f060f559317fb5f6724ca7dccf39895f89731a31289a5bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 438.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 17c | 364.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 329.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 256.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 79c | 249.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 30c | 200.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 191.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 20c | 186.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…682cbacked Yes | 22c | 136.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 17c | 128.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 123.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 30c | 117.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 17c | 109.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 78c | 105.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 104.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 22c | 104.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 102.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 93.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 14c | 83.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e6abbacked Yes | 26c | 77.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 16c | 69.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 16c | 65.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Yes | 28c | 59.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 57.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 80c | 48.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 21.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 78c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.