Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c5d230f54816241e845dd766a052cb3ae94cd8cca30d547ae862f2a96ebb24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 42c | 334.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 80c | 245.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 57c | 186.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 47c | 160.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 75c | 159.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 54c | 153.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 64c | 153.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 152.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 147.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 139.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 136.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 135.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 41c | 133.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 24c | 113.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 107.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8595…3a2cbacked Yes | 72c | 94.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 78c | 93.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 55c | 87.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 31c | 85.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 75c | 83.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 75.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 72.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 66.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 47c | 60.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 57.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 33c | 56.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 53c | 53.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 53.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 36c | 52.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 51.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 40c | 48.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 34c | 46.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 42.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 32c | 36.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 37c | 36.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 38c | 33.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 48c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…a8dfbacked Yes | 69c | 30.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 29.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 40c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 55c | 25.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 47c | 24.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 65c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 69c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 73c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.