Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff94ccd772169d6c3089bd6715883ea84952f607aea8ed90774b7b23203c0eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Derby County FCof Southampton FC, Derby County FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Southampton FC | 33c | 1,425$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.73 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Derby County FC | 69c | 1,167$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.49 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Derby County FC | 66c | 560.44$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Southampton FC | 38c | 415$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Southampton FC | 31c | 412.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Southampton FC | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Derby County FC | 68c | 246.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Southampton FC | 32c | 208.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Southampton FC | 31c | 191.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Derby County FC | 69c | 167.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Derby County FC | 71c | 152$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Derby County FC | 71c | 148$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Derby County FC | 69c | 136.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Southampton FC | 31c | 136$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Derby County FC | 68c | 120.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Southampton FC | 31c | 94.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Derby County FC | 70c | 91.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Derby County FC | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Derby County FC | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Derby County FC | 67c | 38.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Derby County FC | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Derby County FC | 75c | 32.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Derby County FC | 75c | 32.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Derby County FC | 77c | 31.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Derby County FC | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Derby County FC | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Derby County FC | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)this page
- Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.