Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Fairfield Stags
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa5d9f512c67b59b338f2ae36eb3298760d6c8530e8be7d02172f20f107364f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fairfield Stagsof Manhattan Jaspers, Fairfield Stags
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Manhattan Jaspers | 34c | 3,701$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.37 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Fairfield Stags | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Fairfield Stags | 67c | 2,023$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.06 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manhattan Jaspers | 36c | 1,410$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.78 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Manhattan Jaspers | 30c | 1,170$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.45 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Fairfield Stags | 66c | 1,162$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.21 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Manhattan Jaspers | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Fairfield Stags | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fairfield Stags | 66c | 988.4$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.06 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Manhattan Jaspers | 34c | 962.38$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Manhattan Jaspers | 39c | 694.89$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.01 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Manhattan Jaspers | 36c | 385.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Fairfield Stags | 71c | 293.1$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 34c | 279.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Fairfield Stags | 66c | 273.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Manhattan Jaspers | 33c | 201.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Manhattan Jaspers | 35c | 194.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Manhattan Jaspers | 33c | 182.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Manhattan Jaspers | 33c | 145.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fairfield Stags | 67c | 116.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Manhattan Jaspers | 36c | 84.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fairfield Stags | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Manhattan Jaspers | 33c | 79.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Fairfield Stags | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 34c | 64.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Manhattan Jaspers | 24c | 62.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…2711backed Fairfield Stags | 66c | 57.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Fairfield Stags | 65c | 45.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Fairfield Stags | 80c | 44.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Fairfield Stags | 67c | 37.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 32c | 33.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Fairfield Stags | 74c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Fairfield Stags | 68c | 24.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Fairfield Stags | 63c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Fairfield Stags | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Fairfield Stags | 67c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…7f10backed Fairfield Stags | 80c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manhattan Jaspers vs. Fairfield Stagsthis page
- Manhattan Jaspers vs. Fairfield Stags: O/U 149.5Under won
- Manhattan Jaspers vs. Fairfield Stags: O/U 150.5Under won
- Spread: Fairfield Stags (-4.5)Fairfield Stags won
- Spread: Fairfield Stags (-5.5)Fairfield Stags won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.