Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffb01a79681a02e9fa7338bc6146d969c2b8e7f62250c9f0e2cc9f283f7be8ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 835.52$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 13c | 492.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 70c | 320$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 31c | 261.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 260$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 13c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 231.16$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0051…5c20backed No | 71c | 210$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 205.35$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 205.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 176.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 155.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 17c | 154.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 153.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 151.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Yes | 23c | 139.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 118$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 101.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 34c | 96.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 78.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 70.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 62.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 60.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 27c | 55.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 49.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 48.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 45.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 41.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 41.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…ba20backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 31.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 73c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 80c | 21.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…306cbacked No | 68c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.