TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8383…cb59backed No18c1,330$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6249543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes34c873.61$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.9642036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes37c588.76$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.2572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No39c274.08$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.31,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c255.66$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.323,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes54c239.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6163538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No65c226$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.92,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x658c…908bbacked No63c209.77$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f6…ba20backed Yes65c182.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.896100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+62.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes38c174.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c161$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes38c148$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7612629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c145$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No35c144.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c141.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.164,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No15c134.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.112,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes36c125.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.821,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c125.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.664,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes20c124.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6746733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c124$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No57c121$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.961,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c110.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.642,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No28c106$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0114254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6085049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6438138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c86.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.744,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes76c80.35$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5815270.4%107 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes36c74.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.551,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes65c70.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4726533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes43c66.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0842948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No42c62.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.464,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes79c61.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.738560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.015,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.524,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No57c58.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2918045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes40c56.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.11,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c55.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c54.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.854,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes43c53.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4234846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes32c50.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.049635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3316220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.166750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No48c49.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No30c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.012,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No63c46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9819071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c45.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes34c44.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.098023.8%19 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.922,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No28c39.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.152,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c39.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.793,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes38c39.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.411,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e7…00a0backed No61c36.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes32c36.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.72,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes38c35.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.855261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No53c34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.022,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes40c33.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.342,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes40c31.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.155455.6%30 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No35c31.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes44c30.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2993…99b7backed Yes49c30.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes46c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.291,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No65c28.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ad…d17abacked Yes40c28.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No58c27.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.944,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes73c27.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.474283.3%35 W · 7 L+11.6wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+61.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes65c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.457057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes78c25.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No64c23.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked No51c20.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5711735.9%42 W · 75 L-18.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes54c20.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.286989.9%62 W · 7 L+25.3wins+0.37per pick53cpaid+111%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7213655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No66c17.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8228068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes75c17.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3737465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdb…b241backed Yes78c15.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.364864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x864a…306cbacked Yes67c15.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.