Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffc72dbc97f703590e4348b9d22796820a2891a2991180c1109e9e361ec8c7b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof North Carolina State Wolfpack, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55a1…db28backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52c | 47,467$24,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,884.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 53c | 37,777$20,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,021.79 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 37,500$17,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,725 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 17,734$8,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,392.96 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 9,507$4,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,033.3 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 7,721$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,018.26 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 5,352$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.14 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 884.97$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 53c | 484$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 435$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 398$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 147$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 86.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 83.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52c | 67.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-4.5)this page
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-3.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina State WolfpackVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 151.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 153.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 154.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.