Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Kecmanovic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffd1986216b1607e2dd3863bcc4454b7427ceaa51c97af51c31b65ed272d0a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kecmanovicof Tien, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kecmanovic | 56c | 547.83$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.51 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Kecmanovic | 39c | 128.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…8465backed Tien | 43c | 108.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Tien | 24c | 102.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Tien | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Tien | 47c | 94.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 207 | 48.3%100 W · 107 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…1c7dbacked Tien | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Tien | 43c | 65.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked Kecmanovic | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Tien | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Tien | 44c | 49.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Kecmanovic | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Tien | 53c | 47.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 41c | 46.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kecmanovic | 47c | 42.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Kecmanovic | 52c | 34.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Tien | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kecmanovic | 57c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…7e77backed Kecmanovic | 60c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Kecmanovic | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Kecmanovic (+1.5)this page
- Delray Beach Open: Learner Tien vs Miomir KecmanovicTien won
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs KecmanovicTien won
- Tien vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Tien vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Tien vs. Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.