TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Delray Beach Open: Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tienof Tien, Kecmanovic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$512,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8dbf…53bebacked Tien65c61,431$39,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,500.71250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kecmanovic35c49,518$17,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,331.3311242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kecmanovic36c28,128$10,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,082.8421338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac0…9d95backed Kecmanovic39c25,641$9,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,968.081361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Tien64c23,143$14,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,331.4515952.2%83 W · 76 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tien62c13,961$8,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,291.442,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Kecmanovic35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kecmanovic40c9,497$3,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.727,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kecmanovic35c8,742$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.0631332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Kecmanovic18c8,498$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5007630.3%23 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Tien64c8,267$5,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kecmanovic35c7,715$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.0815832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Kecmanovic34c7,595$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.146552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Tien67c7,126$4,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.6413754.7%75 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tien63c7,118$4,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,609.531,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Tien65c6,631$4,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.791,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Kecmanovic21c4,779$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00055646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tien74c4,730$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.088,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Tien66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.453467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Tien65c3,901$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.593,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Kecmanovic29c3,900$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1524643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Kecmanovic32c3,338$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06828444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Kecmanovic35c3,325$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8519134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Tien62c3,227$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.910440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Tien65c3,182$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.5410547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Kecmanovic35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0505453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Kecmanovic36c2,850$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0263132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kecmanovic32c2,685$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.242,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kecmanovic29c2,596$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.616,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Tien79c2,556$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7965959%389 W · 270 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Kecmanovic37c2,416$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.951,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Tien65c2,308$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.698262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Tien65c2,308$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Tien70c2,295$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.3497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…2a72backed Tien66c1,973$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.311973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Tien66c1,797$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.2712952.7%68 W · 61 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Kecmanovic34c1,723$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.6623126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Tien65c1,700$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.0133346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Tien65c1,573$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.5520653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Kecmanovic35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5256350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kecmanovic44c1,460$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.5881349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Tien69c1,448$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.2499044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Tien68c1,276$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.51,18762.8%746 W · 441 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Kecmanovic31c1,216$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.776,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Tien68c1,162$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.344,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Tien75c1,048$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.722553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kecmanovic33c1,025$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.111,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Kecmanovic36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Kecmanovic32c996.63$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0127936.2%101 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Tien64c989$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.0487251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Kecmanovic21c959.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20062545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…971fbacked Kecmanovic29c937.59$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.681266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed Tien65c886.9$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Kecmanovic35c854.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30027154.2%147 W · 124 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed Kecmanovic21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1689530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Kecmanovic38c783.24$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.631,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Tien70c755.78$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.792,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Tien55c742.28$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.052,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Kecmanovic29c723.79$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20899139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Kecmanovic32c700$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22418447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc9f…3314backed Kecmanovic36c694.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Kecmanovic42c663.8$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.52,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a2…dc15backed Kecmanovic37c661.95$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Tien66c626.93$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.063778.4%29 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6094…e860backed Kecmanovic33c601.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2d…d66fbacked Tien66c571.21$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…b4d4backed Kecmanovic35c569.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kecmanovic33c530$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.97,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tien37c500.5$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4365647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kecmanovic33c500$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.54,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Kecmanovic11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5516133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb2…498dbacked Kecmanovic4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Kecmanovic35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17511353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e0…0d61backed Tien20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+75.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Kecmanovic32c498.91$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6516340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Kecmanovic35c488.62$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1653058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Kecmanovic21c484$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Kecmanovic26c464$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Tien65c460$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16123454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Kecmanovic80c450$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36047057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Kecmanovic34c450$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310440.4%42 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Tien64c420$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1513759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tien58c413.32$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.864,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Kecmanovic29c412.59$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.412,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Tien39c412.06$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.064658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81e…3640backed Kecmanovic19c412$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2812944.2%57 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kecmanovic32c408.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.491,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kecmanovic31c397.44$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.946,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Kecmanovic36c394.55$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5770148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480a…a156backed Kecmanovic38c393.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8baa…d404backed Tien66c390$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.62857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe792…80bcbacked Kecmanovic35c387.82$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.366549.2%32 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Tien45c378.74$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7413356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Kecmanovic34c371.83$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.421540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Kecmanovic33c344.15$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11419653.6%105 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Tien63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.461,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Kecmanovic35c314.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11043448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Kecmanovic32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Kecmanovic38c302.63$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11512951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Kecmanovic36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10813134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.