Middle East · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff846aea9c0528d0e7803a82fc14a2fbede342f862f9a71e59f658ec60e14f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4ad…d21fbacked No | 7c | 1,048$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…8094backed No | 7c | 1,035$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…21ffbacked No | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…8bfcbacked No | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…4249backed No | 10c | 1,010$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…61e3backed No | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…a955backed No | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…550fbacked No | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…07f7backed No | 7c | 1,005$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…2b44backed No | 10c | 990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…e51fbacked No | 7c | 976$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…50e5backed No | 7c | 970$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…3be1backed No | 7c | 963$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6812…3ba2backed No | 10c | 960$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…47d1backed No | 7c | 953.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…73d2backed No | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…e35bbacked No | 7c | 949.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…53eebacked No | 7c | 943.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…77d9backed No | 7c | 928$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…dd0fbacked No | 7c | 928$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…041fbacked No | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 14c | 711$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 661.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 3c | 437.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 428$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…ec4fbacked No | 3c | 345.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +1,142.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd877…c974backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 152.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 60c | 97.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 13c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 33c | 60.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 67c | 39.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?this page
- Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Yes won
- Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.