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EventUs Midterms

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Wallets last checked .

Us MidtermsSettled: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? (opens in a new tab)

Settled: Yes won. Yes: 8 wallets, $3,827 · No: 10 wallets, $723 8 of 18 wallets backed the winner.

What these columns mean
Wallet
A wallet that was in the top 200 of Us Midterms when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.
Side
The side of this market the wallet's pick was on.
Result
Whether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.
Staked
What the wallet paid for its pick on this side.
Entry
The average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.
Held to the end
What the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
The pick on this marketSettled markets
WalletA wallet that was in the top 200 of Us Midterms when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.SideThe side of this market the wallet's pick was on.ResultWhether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.StakedWhat the wallet paid for its pick on this side.EntryThe average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.Held to the endWhat the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.Tail ScoreThe number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
0x9dd9…08bd#144 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$6853c+$60.6361
0x7e35…1a6c#375 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$46952c+$429.4558
0x1c14…0869#409 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$2652c+$2458
0x86f0…610c#780 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$3033c-$29.9756
0x03e1…e180#814 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$2550c+$24.556
0x2d6c…e3f5#822 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$5050c-$49.556
0x7c14…5783#2,256 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$2745c-$2754
0xb8ee…9e81No place on the board tonightNolost (open this pick)$13515c-$135.2252
0xe8c4…395d#22,464 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$23149c-$230.5149
0x2f26…0d8f#29,842 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$13042c-$129.8346
0x0518…5da2#30,752 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$2646c-$25.6644
Top 51 to 200
0xa45f…d6cb#18 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$3459c+$23.3767
0x6139…6b7a#225 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$2,31255c+$1,918.3460
0x9c11…847b#880 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$1147c-$10.5156
0x08ef…e466#2,349 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$3939c-$38.7553
0xf528…7e5b#4,916 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$1772c+$6.4452
0xa917…4e8d#30,670 on the boardNolost (open this pick)$4647c-$45.6844
0x17b8…d5d1#30,689 on the boardYeswon (open this pick)$87766c+$449.4944
About this page

A settled market shows the wallets that were in the top 200 when it was played, the same wallets its open page showed, with the pick each one held to the end and whether it won. Their place on the board is tonight's. A market played before 1 November 2026, when we began to keep the top 200, shows the top 50 of that time.