Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0024a17abbd10a57e6edf22cc175a3233c87f8c146424e6f347c3df5c4f313fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 57c | 2,036$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.84 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 443.74$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed No | 55c | 411.31$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.21 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…3384backed Yes | 39c | 390$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 62c | 193.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 68c | 169.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 56c | 147.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…3f9cbacked No | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 52c | 139.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e3…f127backed No | 13c | 127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 56c | 121.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 116.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 38c | 95.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 27c | 88.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 21c | 88.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 47c | 73.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed No | 52c | 50.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 46.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 52c | 41.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ec97backed Yes | 52c | 29.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 44c | 27.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…e414backed No | 60c | 26.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…de73backed Yes | 65c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 43°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.