Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003ef63441a919f3af506403a411f2c77c3598923e408d26b494ad7047db813e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 14,625$11,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,061.07 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,039.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 34c | 4,600$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,012.92 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 1,698$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.23 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 1,389$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.1 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 66c | 1,090$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.58 | 135 | 73.3%99 W · 36 L | +24.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Under | 54c | 577$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 26c | 576$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 343.4$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.38 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 341.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 13c | 217.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…8d95backed Over | 47c | 216.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 210$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed Under | 12c | 187.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 172.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 20c | 168$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 60c | 119.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 68c | 116.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 66c | 88.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 78c | 85.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 29c | 83.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 79.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 70c | 52.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 49.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Under | 61c | 47.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 69c | 39.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 32.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 51c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 73c | 21.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -17.3wins | -0.28per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-2.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.