Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004100df9928b1e9538ce7a890591da7e4a980eb381a22a48ee79f6ab5c22f9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 39c | 1,277$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284d…59f7backed No | 67c | 1,240$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 878.39$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.09 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 751.48$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 38c | 420$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 62c | 375$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 35c | 314.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 284.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 226.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…bebebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 165.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 95.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +10.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 75.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…0badbacked Yes | 35c | 71.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 70.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 70.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 64.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 62.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 78c | 50.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 31.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 67c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.