Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Arctic Pandas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004b13215ead829b6351c64c1328c79734bac68c8423196c227e4281def74386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Heretics Academyof Team Heretics Academy, Arctic Pandas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,502 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Arctic Pandas | 37c | 1,996$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.14 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked Team Heretics Academy | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 626 | 45.8%287 W · 339 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…809dbacked Arctic Pandas | 33c | 472$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…8e8ebacked Arctic Pandas | 33c | 462$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Heretics Academy | 64c | 393$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 2,261 | 37.3%843 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec0…798bbacked Arctic Pandas | 33c | 362$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…8c36backed Arctic Pandas | 33c | 347$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…1678backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 291$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0692backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 285$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…9316backed Arctic Pandas | 33c | 283$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…595dbacked Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 277$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…9da5backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 273$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…27d3backed Arctic Pandas | 33c | 265$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede8…59dcbacked Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 235$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…7f00backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 231$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Team Heretics Academy | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 331 | 43.8%145 W · 186 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…fa85backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 217$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…1f5abacked Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 217$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…2744backed Team Heretics Academy | 67c | 165$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arctic Pandas | 30c | 136.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Arctic Pandas | 38c | 53.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Heretics Academy | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arctic Pandas | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,614 | 17.5%283 W · 1,331 L | -246.8wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arctic Pandas | 30c | 34.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,572 | 47.2%1,215 W · 1,357 L | -36.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6f4ebacked Team Heretics Academy | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 244 | 53.3%130 W · 114 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…8fb9backed Team Heretics Academy | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Arctic Pandas (+1.5)this page
- Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?Yes won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group CTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
- LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Heretics Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.