World Politics · resolved market
Will The Greens win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0051f10b6ef6fccabe3d07feea5f12217dec25a857b7b8931d6969dee94ffbd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda09…9272backed Yes | 37c | 30,005$11,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,101.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…afd3backed No | 63c | 30,005$18,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,101.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…3cc1backed Yes | 35c | 26,301$9,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,205.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…71b2backed No | 65c | 26,301$17,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,205.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0f…fdf7backed No | 76c | 3,674$2,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 16c | 3,106$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.1 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 28c | 2,500$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.38 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,326$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.37 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,568$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.61 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 25c | 1,010$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 626$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 25c | 524.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked Yes | 21c | 476.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 29c | 397.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 9c | 281$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 23c | 204.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 75c | 181.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 174.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 77c | 128.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 40c | 126.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 63c | 72.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 31c | 70.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 55c | 65.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 53c | 45.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…539ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…e956backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Greens win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election?this page
- Will Labor win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election?Yes won
- Will the Liberal National Party win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.