Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0069c83b5e194c609aedc5ec139a7a0f9bcd14a601b7e6d92936233b7acef424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 568.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 67c | 263.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 164.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 32c | 156.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 36c | 135.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 119.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 110.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 32c | 103.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 96.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 33c | 85.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 75.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 37c | 73.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 69c | 71.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 71.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 69.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 68.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 65.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 79c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 60c | 52.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 48.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 42.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 41.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 36.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 35.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 35.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 60c | 30.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 62c | 29.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 58c | 29.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 25.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 25.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7afe…8f39backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…6de8backed No | 80c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…dd60backed No | 68c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 16.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…929ebacked No | 79c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.