Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3710fd357aa545206945df58ec7d751292e3267374a677596a442386c3876e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 9c | 6,645$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.3 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…8188backed No | 4c | 4,499$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 3c | 2,860$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…d641backed No | 1c | 2,659$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 13c | 2,458$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.75 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 80c | 1,904$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.45 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 1,613$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 5c | 1,202$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 1,017$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.21 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 18c | 1,005$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 712.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 71c | 698.32$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 637.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 3c | 575.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 573.44$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 474.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 466$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 460.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 4c | 356.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.04 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…e13ebacked Yes | 4c | 253.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 224.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 213.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 5c | 201.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 16c | 162.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 140.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 129.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 15c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 43c | 67.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 32c | 55.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…27f9backed Yes | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.