Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fb99c5360f5be65b8b4a624fa1e1a969a29842a8ec2e70d8fcf57f90ade9c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 6,832$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.93 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 0c | 5,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,411$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 2,109$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 1,646$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,362$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 6c | 874$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 11c | 733.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 727.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 10c | 662.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 16c | 610.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 609.42$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.02 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…c715backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 478.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 466$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 414.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 12c | 389.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 18c | 346.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 22c | 325.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…e13ebacked Yes | 20c | 254.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 234.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 6c | 227.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 79c | 226.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 222.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 205.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 190$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 7c | 170.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 168.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 162.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 57c | 154.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 144.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 22c | 136.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 26c | 134.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 20c | 130.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 14c | 126.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 126.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 109.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…e5b5backed Yes | 17c | 89.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 23c | 86.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 23c | 71.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 20c | 65.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 60.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 21c | 57.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 80c | 57.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 36.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 65c | 25.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…8acbbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.