NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0094ff5fffc74cb0273dcfc70d624bfa6b721bfdab19ce64e2289f4fc4fbe9ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Under | 48c | 11,937$5,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,207.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 3,513$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.52 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 2,144$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.88 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…5a77backed Under | 49c | 1,466$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…71e4backed Over | 52c | 1,038$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 689.7$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 49c | 613$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 529.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.6 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 515.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 51c | 499.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 434.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 52c | 385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 348.91$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.86 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 341.86$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 164.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 61c | 126.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 53c | 107.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…2f45backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 85.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 52c | 81.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 66.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 51c | 40.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 49c | 35.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 53c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 52c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanucksMaple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.