NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e48630cbc9370df55eb5f691b0c9a296089c2519a65beb3dcfe97d794ea8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canucksof Maple Leafs, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 6,767$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.96 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canucks | 63c | 5,850$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.44 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 3,726$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Canucks | 63c | 2,508$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.97 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Canucks | 64c | 1,247$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.92 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 512$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Canucks | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Canucks | 66c | 363.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 63c | 362$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 233$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Canucks | 63c | 168.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…223fbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Canucks | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…656ebacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 84.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canucks | 66c | 77.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 60.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canucks | 63c | 55.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Canucks | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Canucks | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Canucks | 64c | 41.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 33.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Canucks | 65c | 32.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Canucks | 63c | 30.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Canucks | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Canucks | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Canucks | 66c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Canucks | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Canucks | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Canucks | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Canucks | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanucksMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.