Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e738ab3a531cac71fa1775a374d233fb49d509e8ecacc80dd4c4ef5ef70604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 25c | 306,289$75,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,073.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 75c | 76,556$57,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,053.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 71,232$53,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,808.08 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 77c | 62,012$47,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,402.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 76c | 56,928$43,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,662.72 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 76c | 20,000$15,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 11,468$8,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.44 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 74c | 9,282$6,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.88 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 27c | 6,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 76c | 2,800$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 2,271$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.77 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…3a22backed Yes | 3c | 1,584$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 76c | 857.36$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 636.82$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 427.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 76c | 359.59$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked No | 78c | 336.7$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 335.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 308.77$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 197$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 183$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 76c | 177.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 39c | 91.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked No | 76c | 57.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…0d7fbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will FC Nantes vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.