NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x010050b9aabd32094d582d7d9161ff25d484b20c2140d851bc4644ca28e0561b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Kings, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Kings | 38c | 1,900$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.1 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kings | 3c | 1,805$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Flames | 67c | 1,538$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.49 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Flames | 62c | 1,100$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings | 34c | 1,027$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.07 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kings | 34c | 928.62$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Flames | 65c | 918.72$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.55 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 62c | 863.53$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.14 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Flames | 65c | 278.47$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Kings | 35c | 258.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Flames | 64c | 237.05$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Flames | 68c | 205.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Kings | 33c | 202.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Kings | 35c | 199.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Flames | 75c | 176.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Kings | 32c | 156.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Kings | 36c | 150.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kings | 25c | 148.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Kings | 31c | 140.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flames | 70c | 130.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flames | 73c | 98.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Flames | 68c | 96.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kings | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 63c | 95.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Kings | 34c | 92.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kings | 30c | 77.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flames | 62c | 60.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Kings | 26c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kings | 32c | 58.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Flames | 66c | 55.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Flames | 70c | 54.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flames | 68c | 53.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Kings | 29c | 52.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kings | 35c | 46.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Kings | 32c | 44.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Kings | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Flames | 71c | 40.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Flames | 68c | 37.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Flames | 68c | 33.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kings | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Flames | 68c | 32.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.