NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7c8e998149d432642120d8ed4a6bf65635903b115bd333472ec2c807d94318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 1,684$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 45c | 1,178$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.14 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 955.65$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 832.63$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.63 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 755$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.2 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 746.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 65c | 685.93$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.93 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 49c | 570.69$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 40c | 534.02$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 24c | 421$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.7 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308d…3519backed Under | 50c | 397.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 10c | 330.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 314.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.43 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 290.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…58debacked Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 7c | 196.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 51c | 194.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 55c | 157.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 75c | 156$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 68c | 121.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 77.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Under | 65c | 70.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 39c | 69.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccb8…6eeebacked Under | 69c | 69.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 25c | 67.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 65.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 37c | 61.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 62c | 60.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 50c | 59.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 40c | 59.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 58.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…57bebacked Over | 69c | 50.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…b380backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Over | 66c | 49.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 31c | 47.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Over | 75c | 44.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Under | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 37c | 41.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 42c | 40.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 47c | 40.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 44c | 38.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Under | 56c | 32.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…188fbacked Under | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed Over | 76c | 16.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.