NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5b397bdf56ce2be2069ff6c8e13f1a19a6b69a20532c5a54f9fcccc1191477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 45c | 6,032$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.26 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Under | 55c | 1,956$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.7 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 57c | 1,856$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.89 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 56c | 1,266$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.84 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,014$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 56c | 991.1$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.1 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…c40dbacked Under | 55c | 881.82$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 636.64$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 55c | 407.85$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.85 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 355.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…a03fbacked Under | 55c | 341.82$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 15c | 324.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 45c | 312.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 229$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 225.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 45c | 104.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 45c | 104.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 104.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 45c | 104.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 197 | 59.4%117 W · 80 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 44c | 84.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…ba76backed Over | 45c | 59.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…cac7backed Under | 75c | 53.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 37.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 44c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3039backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Under | 56c | 20.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Under | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.