NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0103698b387fcb40f449f32e9be3dc481e10a8e1029bb29f6fc98d94a4a7542d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,605 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x528f…b5f5backed Over | 27c | 449$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…02abbacked Over | 27c | 449$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede8…59dcbacked Over | 27c | 425$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…27d3backed Over | 27c | 405$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…71f4backed Under | 74c | 391$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce7…33ecbacked Over | 27c | 377$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…7f3abacked Over | 27c | 281$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…8935backed Under | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…1e28backed Under | 73c | 261$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…3846backed Under | 73c | 258$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b5…4330backed Under | 73c | 239$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…b94ebacked Under | 73c | 235$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…1477backed Under | 73c | 232$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…1cc3backed Under | 74c | 218$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…415fbacked Under | 74c | 214$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…51bfbacked Under | 74c | 214$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…99edbacked Under | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…c658backed Over | 27c | 204$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2683backed Under | 73c | 189$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…39d8backed Under | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…8d2dbacked Over | 27c | 171$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…3965backed Under | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…bcebbacked Over | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…29a5backed Over | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…8055backed Under | 73c | 154$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…ffc7backed Under | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 73c | 149.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…c128backed Under | 74c | 149$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…b517backed Under | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec3…0c76backed Over | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…2763backed Under | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…3a39backed Under | 73c | 139$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…121cbacked Over | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…e586backed Over | 26c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f9…e193backed Over | 26c | 131$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd506…d33cbacked Over | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e5…1fa9backed Over | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…2c90backed Over | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…a01fbacked Under | 73c | 106.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf530…6ae1backed Over | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79e…920cbacked Over | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…bfd4backed Over | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5this page
- Flyers vs. WildFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.