NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6c6afcd3235a6836852867a17c20cf2c6602d13ddfc802e643927f39aa2604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Wild, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,132 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Wild | 47c | 5,218$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.07 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 53c | 2,127$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flyers | 53c | 1,499$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.73 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Wild | 46c | 584$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Flyers | 53c | 578.04$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.18 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flyers | 53c | 473.87$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flyers | 53c | 317.24$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wild | 54c | 300$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Wild | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 49c | 289.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Flyers | 55c | 260.27$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Flyers | 54c | 226.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Flyers | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flyers | 53c | 217.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Wild | 47c | 213.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Flyers | 55c | 181.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Flyers | 55c | 148.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Flyers | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Flyers | 54c | 119.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Wild | 70c | 115.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Wild | 46c | 107.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wild | 46c | 89.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…b810backed Flyers | 54c | 83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Wild | 47c | 82.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wild | 46c | 75.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Wild | 45c | 74.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Flyers | 20c | 62.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Flyers | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Flyers | 54c | 55.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Flyers | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Wild | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wild | 45c | 40.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Wild | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Flyers | 53c | 34.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Flyers | 55c | 31.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…1711backed Flyers | 55c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Wild | 47c | 27.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Flyers | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. WildFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.