NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0a6842dc939fd5e244acd05c46079b58aae54ec3b07c2574527e05e10edc9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 57c | 12,426$7,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,344.53 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 5,600$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.75 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…0918backed Over | 43c | 5,271$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 43c | 2,222$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.46 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 811$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.12 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 32c | 797.34$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 57c | 705.22$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 57c | 593.19$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.95 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f2…a982backed Under | 56c | 466.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…9371backed Over | 44c | 450.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…6183backed Over | 44c | 444.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…ca18backed Under | 56c | 428$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 363.84$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 214.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 44c | 214$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Over | 43c | 174.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 43c | 172.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Over | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 56c | 135.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 44c | 98.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 89.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 45c | 36.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Under | 57c | 35.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 35c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. WildFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.