NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa95b0ab535ab9c4dee16088d109aae92a84f0d638544b649ec35893518253c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,288 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22ab…ad9abacked Under | 26c | 533$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…dcb3backed Under | 26c | 330$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…ffc7backed Under | 26c | 329$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…9da5backed Under | 26c | 306$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…993cbacked Over | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…ecb8backed Over | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…9452backed Over | 75c | 234$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…d0f7backed Over | 75c | 231$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a43…c867backed Over | 74c | 224$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2683backed Over | 75c | 224$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…f83dbacked Under | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…729dbacked Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f4…bba6backed Under | 25c | 194$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd24backed Over | 74c | 181$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…a9f4backed Under | 25c | 171$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb9…6753backed Over | 75c | 169$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…ac43backed Over | 75c | 161$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…1a5cbacked Over | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1e…fefdbacked Over | 75c | 153$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…b5f5backed Under | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…d99abacked Over | 75c | 137$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5c…869cbacked Under | 25c | 133$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…7009backed Under | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 74c | 116.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…a471backed Under | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 42c | 96.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…f437backed Over | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 59c | 29.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Over | 59c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. WildFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.