NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0053761bca03688970605db5847dce7d47892d1ffed7b589f31f563ac0e29357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,531 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Under | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 22c | 2,791$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.92 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 22c | 1,265$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 22c | 921$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.92 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 776$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.91 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Over | 55c | 689.07$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.87 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 46c | 650$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 55c | 516$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 45c | 401.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 273.91$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 257.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 234.93$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 22c | 223$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 198$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 25c | 136.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 118.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 72.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 45c | 53.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 68c | 49.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 44c | 47.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 56c | 47.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Over | 56c | 41.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 37.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Over | 55c | 36.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 35c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 35c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 26.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. WildFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.