World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0107b588c471a177081b7448c19d8773f5e5314977461c5fde9eb9d3c3ccdd4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 262.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.29 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 59c | 135.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 23c | 122.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 119.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 84.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 76.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 61.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 33c | 57.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 53.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 49.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 37c | 40.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 23.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 23.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 67c | 20.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.