World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a50ca073655d3e4117102bc8f0df529925380a457e1b743c774c45097ab2f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,233$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 792.42$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 232$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 229$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 211.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 211$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 210.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 196$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 31c | 163.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 163$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 154.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 133.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 130.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 45c | 122.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 118.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 107.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 84.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 68.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 48c | 62.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 50c | 60.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 56.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 51.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 48.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 47.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 68c | 44.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 51c | 34.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 53c | 29.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 54c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 55c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 24.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed No | 60c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.