Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x012e5ddbafe0e3bc03850fa7cc2d3bda8e211991545af5e6b82b028a7ac97cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,155 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5531…c4cebacked No | 1c | 6,100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…025dbacked No | 1c | 3,900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 0c | 2,134$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 766.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 4c | 323.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 4c | 268.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…63a4backed No | 6c | 267.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 12c | 267.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 6c | 260.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 6c | 253.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 199.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 198.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…7452backed No | 13c | 192.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…ff13backed No | 10c | 189.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 178.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 13c | 144.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Yes | 79c | 127.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 78c | 115.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked No | 16c | 109.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 12c | 107.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 23c | 100.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 77c | 94.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 31c | 81.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 69c | 76.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 29c | 74.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 72c | 68.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 74c | 59.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 79c | 26.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 64c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 57c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked Yes | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 76c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed Yes | 80c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…1b33backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.