Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016cff3c17d955a10dd26b5c9399249cfd1294be7d0beec8423231cd6a915d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Arizona Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,248 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 4,784$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.25 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 1,452$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.34 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones | 64c | 839.25$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.27 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 695.73$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.17 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…78b1backed Arizona Wildcats | 32c | 636.73$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 519.9$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.94 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 42c | 462.37$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 451.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.95 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 381.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.29 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 342.5$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 297.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 283.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 269.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 236.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 198$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 157.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 155.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 131.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 129.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa State Cyclones | 63c | 128.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 128.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 69c | 118.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Iowa State Cyclones | 55c | 113.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Arizona Wildcats | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…17f1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 86.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 80.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 47c | 77.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 70.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona Wildcats | 43c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 46.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 41.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 29.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 59c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 60c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 21.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +10.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4547…ac9bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-4.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 143.5Over won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 144.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-3.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-1.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-2.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.