Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64127e67ffe36e5a3f37ae0228fd2bfd8fce7dff68d261863a2c9bf4cd5762b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Arizona Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,107 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 4,622$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.78 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 3,411$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 3,295$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.22 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 1,940$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.32 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 1,689$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.71 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 1,492$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.81 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 1,205$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.62 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…37f3backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 1,065$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 657.21$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.65 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 476.57$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 446.07$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 381.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 368.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599e…0277backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 346.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 321.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 220.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa State Cyclones | 45c | 176.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 139.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Wildcats | 55c | 127.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 87.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 80.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 79.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 68.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 67.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 66.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…18e6backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 50.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 49.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 40.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…32f1backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-3.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 143.5Over won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 144.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-4.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-1.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-2.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.