TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa697…59d5backed Yes49c453.96$222 inLost-$222.446,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes49c421.76$207 inLost-$206.663,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked No51c411.76$210 inWon+$201.764546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Yes4c324$15 inLost-$14.523625%9 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed No51c313.73$160 inWon+$153.7310953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes11c106.85$12 inLost-$11.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed No51c60$31 inWon+$29.47356.2%41 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed No51c41.18$21 inWon+$20.1819041.1%78 W · 112 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed No51c39.06$20 inWon+$19.146347.6%30 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.