MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a22d582a77c19679e87a7eef95460c5df938cc31aec17da3c4c0a1872f8bbb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 7,680$5,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 33c | 7,420$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 1,032$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 30c | 929.1$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 732.64$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros | 59c | 545.49$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.84 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 495$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 29c | 435$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 399$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Houston Astros | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 300.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 297.37$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Houston Astros | 26c | 266.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 30c | 215.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 35c | 187.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 156.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 150.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 150.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 149$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 125.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 112.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 79.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 49.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 35.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 23.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.