Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Marton Fucsovics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019b69066b3fbf04157511ee53e7ed8d8e833ec80d04d890335c2ce83f1a872b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fucsovicsof Carabelli, Fucsovics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Carabelli | 0c | 18,769$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 0c | 7,640$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…82fcbacked Fucsovics | 73c | 4,101$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.91 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Carabelli | 14c | 2,383$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fucsovics | 72c | 1,947$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Carabelli | 20c | 1,880$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carabelli | 25c | 1,698$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Carabelli | 20c | 1,616$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Carabelli | 33c | 1,215$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Fucsovics | 80c | 1,185$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Carabelli | 19c | 911.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.22 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Carabelli | 21c | 896.44$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.33 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…bc98backed Fucsovics | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carabelli | 28c | 636.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Fucsovics | 71c | 604.6$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Carabelli | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Carabelli | 21c | 499.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…4a3cbacked Fucsovics | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Fucsovics | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Carabelli | 27c | 319$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Carabelli | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Carabelli | 27c | 295.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Fucsovics | 72c | 240.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fucsovics | 75c | 188.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fucsovics | 78c | 146$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Carabelli | 24c | 132.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Fucsovics | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Carabelli | 21c | 116.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Carabelli | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Carabelli | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Fucsovics | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…8cacbacked Carabelli | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 61.5%131 W · 82 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Carabelli | 19c | 80.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Fucsovics | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Carabelli | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Carabelli | 24c | 62.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Carabelli | 26c | 53.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Carabelli | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5257backed Carabelli | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Fucsovics | 65c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Fucsovics | 71c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Fucsovics | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Fucsovics | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 242 | 74%179 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Marton Fucsovicsthis page
- Carabelli vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Carabelli vs FucsovicsFucsovics won
- Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-2.5) vs Carabelli (+2.5)Fucsovics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.