Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01bc058893c79dd3b2834172a1c8d57631bcef4c193aa35d4f63e1178207285e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked Yes | 0c | 16,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,143$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 58c | 431.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 389.42$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 69c | 323.02$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 58c | 230.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 205.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 138.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 133.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 64c | 127.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 102.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 46c | 94.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 88.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 86.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 62c | 79.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 75.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 36c | 73.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 60.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 59.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 57.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…1405backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 47.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 46.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 43.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 41.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 55c | 41.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked No | 51c | 41.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe76…c9e4backed No | 35c | 40.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 67c | 33.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 33.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 66c | 30.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 47c | 24.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…9347backed No | 75c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 22.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 55c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 67c | 17.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.