MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01cbaf5ac35827df938d9fda896a5710efe183138adc766189898ae512bb210f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 10,831$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 2,637$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.25 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 699.41$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.78 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 635.14$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 414.53$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.38 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 388.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 15c | 290.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 230.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaac…41fabacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 145.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 114$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 108.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 93.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 55.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.