MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa6dbf6eb56411067a46d41b8647b31a1cd3f365a50cd69fa6fa0c8e9bffff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 49c | 94,705$46,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,299.54 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 48,317$24,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,641.75 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 34,019$17,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,348.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 62c | 5,926$3,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,648.43 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 2,216$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.49 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 2,117$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.71 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 2,048$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.92 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 1,718$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.19 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,356$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.91 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Over | 47c | 1,102$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…3dddbacked Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.14 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 1,019$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.58 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 999.99$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 960.65$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.14 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 523.99$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 51c | 414.71$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 51c | 392.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 54c | 314.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 48c | 312.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457f…aa1abacked Under | 52c | 255.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 230.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 222.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 196.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 65c | 123.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 118.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 31c | 82.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 51c | 76.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b38…697fbacked Under | 52c | 65.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 51c | 38.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 51c | 33.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 52c | 32.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 52c | 30.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 26.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 46c | 21.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.