Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d19745788a0e25be22a951e3fa6b262bd724d47ff52fc0e602a26650f41655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Waltonof Mensik, Walton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mensik | 0c | 7,470$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Mensik | 51c | 7,245$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,691.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Walton | 49c | 3,249$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.69 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Walton | 49c | 1,711$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.3 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Walton | 50c | 1,341$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.42 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…cf27backed Walton | 49c | 585$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Mensik | 9c | 543.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Mensik | 53c | 503.19$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Walton | 46c | 500$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.4 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Mensik | 54c | 430$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.35 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…37a5backed Walton | 49c | 415$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Walton | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Walton | 68c | 325.44$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mensik | 50c | 281$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Walton | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Mensik | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Walton | 48c | 87.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Mensik | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Walton | 48c | 59.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Walton | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Walton | 48c | 34.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Walton | 48c | 30.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Walton | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Jakub MensikJakub Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.