Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x020965a02c4a25f71f3fad7782563a7e6288057ec2a7af28deaac9c19bcebfc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Jenzof Team Jenz, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Jenz | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Jenz | 61c | 284.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Team Lynx | 49c | 251.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Lynx | 47c | 227.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Team Lynx | 39c | 207.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Team Lynx | 50c | 199.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Jenz | 56c | 186.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Team Lynx | 48c | 145.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Team Jenz | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Team Jenz | 44c | 119.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Lynx | 47c | 83.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Jenz | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Team Lynx | 48c | 73.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Team Jenz | 49c | 59.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Team Lynx | 39c | 58.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Team Lynx | 39c | 53.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Team Lynx | 56c | 50.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Jenz | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Team Jenz | 60c | 41.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Team Lynx | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Jenz | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Team Jenz | 68c | 29.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Team Jenz | 55c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group ATeam Jenz won
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Jenz won
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Jenz won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.