Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02375d75434fb381c200883c8738e3d6981f5a50512d97c0530fbbd3b2fccb0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,819 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 5,074$3,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.54 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 2,113$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.83 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 21c | 1,125$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 26c | 1,121$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 22c | 747$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 22c | 619.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 10c | 517.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 76c | 405.4$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 12c | 329.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 209.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 24c | 152.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 18c | 120.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 25c | 67.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Under | 76c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over | 27c | 37.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 75c | 36.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 78c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 77c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 78c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.